Status and Future of China’s Front-End Nuclear Fuel Cycle Industry

LI Guan-xing

(China Nuclear Power Co., Ltd., Beijing 100822, China)

Abstract: Based on the analysis of China's nuclear fuel cycle industry, this article aims to describe the status and challenges of China’s front-end nuclear fuel cycle industry, including the supply of natural uranium, uranium conversion, uranium enrichment, fuel fabrication and analysis, and to forecast the future of the front-end nuclear fuel cycle industry in China. Corresponding countermeasures to deal with the challenges identified are presented.

Key words: Nuclear Fuel Cycle; Natural Uranium; Uranium Conversion; Uranium Enrichment; Fuel Fabrication.

The nuclear fuel cycle is the process of acquiring, using, reprocessing and recycling nuclear fuel.  The cycle can be broken down into two parts, the front-end cycle and the back-end cycle. The front-end nuclear fuel cycle includes uranium mining, processing, enrichment and fuel assembly fabrication.

 

1. Opportunity open to China’s nuclear fuel cycle industry
The active promotion of nuclear power development in China has created unprecedented opportunities for the nuclear fuel cycle industry. Along with opportunities, however, come tough challenges. Fig. 1 shows forecasts for nuclear power plant (NPP) installed capacity in China.

 

 
Fig. 1 – Forecast NPP installed capacity in China.

The figures for NPP installed capacity from 2007 to 2020 are from the China Medium and Long Term Development Planning for Nuclear Power. According to the related national nuclear industry development plan, nuclear power capacity added annually over the period from 2020 to 2050 is expected to reach 4 GWe.

As of today, China has not yet made plans for the country’s nuclear industry beyond 2020. But the policy of actively promoting the domestic development of nuclear power is clear. According to the “World Energy Outlook 2007” issued by the International Energy Agency, China is expected to build more nuclear power plants over upcoming years.

Fig. 1 and Fig. 2 show that China should have nuclear installed capacity of 104,968MW by 2035, more than the installed nuclear capacity found in the U.S in 2008.

Fig. 2 – Installed nuclear power capacity in major countries using nuclear energy.

Zhang Guobao, the vice president of the National Development and Research Center (NDRC) and also president of the country’s National Energy Administration, has stated numerous times the need to readjust the medium and long term plan for China’s nuclear industry, to strengthen the development of power plants in the coastal areas and to scientifically plan the development of nuclear power resources in inland China. He also announced a 5% target for nuclear power as a proportion of overall electricity production in China. Should China continue to actively promote the development of nuclear power, it is clear that the country is on its way to becoming the world’s biggest producer of civil nuclear power. In step with this, the nuclear fuel cycle industry in China should see significant development opportunities, with the potential to grow into the largest nuclear fuel cycle market in the world. This is a basic fact one must keep in mind when analyzing and planning for the nuclear fuel industry, as it should also have a significant impact on the market structure of the nuclear fuel cycle industry.

2. Supply of natural uranium
2.1. Analysis of natural uranium demand
Until 2008, there were 439 nuclear reactors operating around the world, total installed capacity globally amounted to 372,059 MWe and demand for uranium stood at 64,615 tons per year. In 2006, Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA), a specialized agency within the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) published a red book titled Uranium 2005 – Resources, Production and Demand. The red book estimated that 54.69 million tons of conventional uranium at a cost of under 130 dollars/Kg have been found, with speculation additional uranium reserves amounted to 14.78 million tons.
Looking at unconventional uranium, it estimated that up to 22.00 million tons of uranium could be extracted from phosphate rock.
2.2. Development and utilization of uranium resources in China
According to the second National Uranium Resource Evaluation, which is currently ongoing, China has a significant quantity of uranium reserves –possibly over 2 million tons, while the proven resources of uranium could only fuel the reactors expected by 2020.

In June 2008, the Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency co-published a red book titled Uranium 2007 – Resources, Production and Demand. According to the book, China had produced 750 tons of uranium in 2006. It is generally recognized that ten years will be needed in geological prospecting of nuclear resources, including general exploration → specific exploration → official submission of the quantities of nuclear resources reserves. It takes four years to build a uranium mine. Meanwhile, the output volume of natural uranium still remains small. In order to meet the demand created by nuclear power development, China will have to make significant efforts to secure uranium supply.